PoE Tainted Orb of Fusing Calculator

In the video game Path of Exile, it is possible to six-link an item. In the remainder, I abbreviate some expressions:
OoF Orb of Fusing
VO Vaal Orb
TOoF Tainted Orb of Fusing

There are multiple ways to six-link an item:

Standard way
Apply OoFs until the item has six links.
Crafting bench
Pay 1500 OoFs on the crafting bench.
5 to 6
Pay 150 OoFs on the crafting bench to five-link the item. Then corrupt the item (using e.g. a VO or a Craicic Vassal with beast crafting to get 30% quality; note that the higher the quality of the item, the higher the probabilities to get more links while using OoFs or TOoFs). Then repeat: Apply a TOoF, if it is six-linked then done, else use the crafting bench five-link for 150 OoFs + 150 VOs (as the item is corrupted, crafting bench linking requires the same amount of VOs as OoFs).
4 to 6
Pay 5 OoFs on the crafting bench to four-link the item. Then corrupt the item. Then repeat until the item is six-linked: Apply TOoFs, whenever the largest group of linked sockets is three, apply the crafting bench four-link craft for 5 OoFs + 5 VOs. (The general remarks of the method 5 to 6 apply.)

Probabilities

Probability that a TOoF adds a link to the largest group of linked sockets:
50 (The largest group of linked sockets is 5.)
50 (The largest group of linked sockets is 4.)

Numbers by theory

These expected values and standard deviations (noted as ev or ev ± std) are computed via a suitable geometric distribution and a Markov chain, cf. the corresponding paper.
OoF VO TOoF Expected Cost
Price
Crafting bench 1500 0 0
5 to 6
4 to 6

Experiments

I also provide a tool to perform a random walk in the corresponding Markov chain, to simulate experiments.
Number of experiments:

5 to 6

Mean Standard Deviation
OoF
VO
TOoF
Cost
The graphs do not include the 5 / 150 OoF spent before corrupting the item.

4 to 6

Mean Standard Deviation
OoF
VO
TOoF
Cost
The graphs do not include the 5 / 150 OoF spent before corrupting the item.